1P Start

Gaming industry analysts are becoming more vocal, and consequentially, more listened to every month, with gamers hanging on every word some star names say. Michael Pachter, the analyst for Wedbush Morgan is one such name, and his latest prediction is about the forthcoming Grand Theft Auto game.

We all know Grand Theft Auto 4, or GTA IV if you’re down with the kids, is going to be huge, it’s almost guaranteed. It’s a game which is seeming to unite Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 owners across the divide that is the console format war.

Everyone is eagerly awaiting the release, which has now been confirmed for both systems on April 29th. Pachter believes that it will be by far the biggest game of 2008, selling an incredible 6 million copies in its first week.

According to NextGen.biz, he said:

“We think that GTA IV will generate around $450 million of the [Take-Two's] expected $1,073 million publishing revenue this year, and will generate an operating profit of around 30 percent, or $135 million. At the high end of company guidance, Take-Two will generate operating income of around $130 million, meaning that the game is responsible for 103 percent of overall company operating profit.”

That’s a pretty big claim, but it’s all part of Pachter’s continuing support for the Electronic Arts buy out of rival publisher Take-Two, which he seems to be all for.

In February, EA made a bid of $2 billion for the company, which was rejected. It now looks as though the bid could become a hostile takeover, although Pachter tries to put the case for the shareholders to accept the offer currently on the table.

“…Take-Two is pretty much the same company it was over the past three years, but has the good fortune to have GTA IV coming out next month,”

“The game will mask recurring problems from the rest of the company’s operations, and calls into question the value of the rest of Take-Two’s business.”

“…Shareholders should jump at Electronic Arts’ ‘proposal’ to purchase the company for $26 per share in cash.”

I don’t know if there’s any agenda behind Pachter’s insistence on what a good deal this would be for Take-Two, but maybe he should let the company do what they see fit.

I can certainly see why EA wants to buy them out, but with what is clearly going to be the biggest release of the year due out in less than two months, wouldn’t they be mad to sell at this point?